The “Jobs Creation” Fallacy

Felix Salmon chimes in on the Startup Act 3.0 in his latest post. The focus is on the so called immigrant-entrepreneur visa:

One is the immigrant-entrepreneur visa; the second is the idea of giving green cards to up to 50,000 foreign students who graduate from an American university with an advanced degree in science, technology, engineering, or mathematics — so long as they remain in that field for five consecutive years.

This is a very very very good thing. Our bleed to other countries in technical fields is quickly turning into a hemorrhage. However, he also makes a assumption that trips up most people: the lure of Job Creation.

And of course — by definition — it would create jobs. The Kauffman foundation’s math is solid, here: they conservatively estimate job creation at somewhere between 500,000 and 1.6 million new jobs after ten years, and possibly substantially more. (Those estimates don’t include jobs created by the new firms after they’ve left the program, for instance.)

Now, some of these entrepreneurs will start companies in the classics: education, healthcare, manufacturing, etc.. However, the majority will be tech related startups. And here’s the rub: the required employees of tech startups are not the ones sitting around unemployed. There’s a major shortage in knowledge workers of all kinds, from engineers on down. So simply creating more available jobs is not actually going to help out of work people get work. They already have work.

This visa does nothing to stimulate the creation of supply for these jobs, only demand. In a way, this will actually hurt the economy a bit because you’re adding to the price war going on for technical workers. This drives prices up to levels only large companies can afford, pushing out the smaller, scrappy entrepreneurs. The rich get richer.

If the government really wants to stimulate job creation, in addition to the above visa, they should work on increasing supply. But how? Simple: subsidize the education ( college or otherwise ) of anyone getting a degree / certification in a field that’s among the highest demand for the past 3-5 years. Computer Science, Electrical Engineering, Software Development, etc..

With the sky rocketing costs of tuition, people are facing the choice of education or no education. By offering them alternative situation ( Major in communications and take out loans or Major in Technical Writing and go for free ) you’re also reducing the debt load of an entire generation of teenagers who would otherwise die in debt.